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Economic Insights from Dr. Sherry Cooper - May 6 2025
May 6, 2025 | Posted by: Matthew J. Charlton
President Trump’s second term, now just over 100 days long, has wreaked chaos worldwide.
A selloff in US assets deepened as President Donald Trump stepped up criticism of Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, on social media, with stocks, the dollar and longer-dated Treasuries sliding amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s future independence.
Trump’s assurances that tariff talks were progressing did little to stop the rout. Wealth has been obliterated as stocks have sold off everywhere, and the US dollar has weakened to a 15-month low. The benchmark 10-year fell, with the yield close to 4.4%. As investors turned away from US securities, haven assets climbed. Gold jumped to another record, above $3,400 an ounce, while the Swiss franc gained more than 1% against the dollar.
The weakness also spread to the US credit market. In derivatives, the cost of protecting a basket of high-grade credit securities against default rose to the highest over a week. Three investment-grade companies looked at selling bonds on Monday.
The US president took to Truth Social, escalating his attack on the Fed chair, insisting there was “virtually” no inflation and it was time for “preemptive cuts.” The last reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remains above the central bank’s target. There will be a new readout next week.
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Friday that Trump is studying whether he can fire Powell. The comments raised new questions about whether the Fed can maintain its longstanding independence, with the president increasingly venting dissatisfaction in harsh terms that the central bank hasn’t moved faster to lower interest rates.
“Were Powell to be fired, the initial reaction would be a huge injection of volatility into financial markets and the most dramatic rush to the exit from US assets possible,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. “Not only is the independence of the Fed clearly under threat, but the prospect of de-dollarisation and a move away from US hegemony is increasingly realistic.”
Hedge fund elites have echoed this concern. According to people present, Paul Singer, founder of Elliott Investment Management, warned recently at a private event in Abu Dhabi that the US dollar might lose its reserve currency status.
Rebuking the Fed risks politicizing US monetary policy in a way that markets find deeply unsettling.
“Frankly, firing Powell stretches belief,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “If the credibility of the Fed is called into question, it could severely erode confidence in the dollar.”
Fed Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warned against efforts to curtail the central bank’s independence. “There’s virtual unanimity among economists that monetary independence from political interference — that the Fed or any central bank be able to do the job needs to do — is essential,” Goolsbee said on CBS’s Face the Nation on Sunday.
Legal scholars say that a president can’t dismiss a Fed chair easily, and Powell has previously said he wouldn’t resign if asked by Trump.
Trade War
Trump’s tariff offensive also weighed a heavy burden on markets amid worries about a financial slump.
“The global economy is buffeted by a US war on trade, which we believe generates a large enough economic shock to threaten the life of the US and global expansion,” wrote Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.7% on Monday—every Group-of-10 currency gained against the greenback, including the Canadian dollar. The yen jump weighed on stock indexes in Japan, pushing the Nikkei 225 down 1.3%.
The yen, euro and Swiss franc rallied. WTI crude fell more than 2% to below $64 a barrel. This and eliminating the consumer carbon tax should keep April inflation close to the target level.
As a sign that investors are rotating investments away from the US, Deutsche Bank AG said that Chinese clients had reduced some of their Treasury holdings in favour of European debt. European high-quality bonds, Japanese government bonds and gold are likely to be the potential choices for investors as alternatives to Treasuries.
With this backdrop, the Canadian economy has slowed precipitously. A Canadian recession likely began in the second quarter as consumer and business confidence plunged to record lows. While the details of the imposed levies are uncertain, there is no question that layoffs in the most vulnerable sectors, such as auto manufacturing, are just the tip of the iceberg. Other highly vulnerable sectors include agriculture, mining and minerals, energy, and lumber.
Once the Canadian election is behind us, the most critical next step would be renegotiating the USMCA—the free trade agreement initially negotiated by the first Trump administration.
Tariff turmoil and rising longer-term interest rates have sideswiped Canada’s housing markets, especially in Toronto and Vancouver, where overbuilding and rising new listings have led to a marked decline in the sales-to-new-listings ratio. Home prices are soft, and sellers are motivated.
While the Bank of Canada moved to the sidelines at the April 16 meeting, we believe incoming data will confirm that a recession is imminent. Although trade restrictions put upward pressure on prices, the central bank will no doubt respond if one-shot price hikes feed into an inflationary cycle.
Because Canada is far more interest rate sensitive and depends critically on trade with the US, our economic reaction is likely to be the canary in the coal mine. The Bank of Canada will undoubtedly respond to recessionary pressure by decreasing the overnight policy rate to 2.0%-to-2.25% in the next few months. This should help to spur housing activity where pent-up demand for housing is growing.
Please note: The source of this article is from Sherry Cooper.
