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Residential Market Commentary - Bank of Canada balancing act - June 30 2025
June 30, 2025 | Posted by: Matthew J. Charlton
Expert opinions on Bank of Canada interest rate cuts are shifting.
A growing number of market watchers are backing away from their predictions of two more reductions this year. Several are now saying the Bank has likely reached the end of the current trimming cycle.
The central bank held its trend-setting Policy Rate at 2.75% for a second time in its decision on June 4. Since then, inflation numbers and Gross Domestic Product readings have given the BoC reasonable grounds to stand pat.
Statistics Canada’s latest figures for GDP show it declined by 0.1% in April compared to March. Much of that decline was led by the manufacturing sector, which is falling victim to U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty. A similar reduction is forecast for May. While many economists admit the slowdown shows the economy is softening, they say it is not on the verge of collapse. GDP is 1.3% higher than it was a year earlier.
The other key factor in the Bank’s rate decisions, inflation, held steady at 1.7% in May. That headline number is actually below the Bank’s target of 2.0% and would normally suggest there is room for a further rate cut. However, that is a little deceiving.
Headline inflation (aka the Consumer Price Index) continued to be skewed by the elimination of the consumer carbon tax. As well, core inflation, which is the BoC’s preferred measure, remains stuck at 3.0%, which is the high end of the Bank’s desired inflation range.
The Bank finds itself trying to balance economic growth against the risk of rising inflation. The Bank’s next interest rate announcement is set for July 30.
Please note: The source of this article is from First National Financial LP.
